On January 22, local time, Cornwall Insight, a well-known British energy research company, released its latest research report, revealing that British residents’ energy expenses are expected to see a significant decline in the spring. The report points out that British households’ energy bills may fall by nearly 16% in the short term, driven by prices falling from highs, bringing some relief to households with tight budgets.
Forecasts from Cornwall Insights show that energy regulator Ofgem’s annualized price cap could fall to £1,620 in April this year, down from around £1,928 in January, a drop of up to £308. This means that UK energy prices are expected to continue to fall throughout the year.
The report pointed out that wholesale energy prices have shown a downward trend since mid-November last year, which will create conditions for lowering the price ceiling. Ofgem’s price caps represent a typical household’s annual bill and reflect wholesale prices for electricity and gas.
However, Craig Lowry, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, cautioned: “While recent trends suggest prices may stabilize, a full return to previous levels of energy spending will still take time. “Changes, as well as continued concerns about geopolitical events, mean we may still face prices above historical averages.”
In addition, British inflation will gradually ease. On the 22nd, the Ernst & Young Statistics Club, a well-known British economic research institution, pointed out in its latest economic analysis report that the current stagflation in the UK is expected to be alleviated in 2024.
The Ernst & Young Statistics Club pointed out that the current main difficulties in British economic growth are continued inflation and high benchmark interest rates, both of which will be alleviated in 2024. Ernst & Young predicts that the UK will control inflation below 2% in May 2024. At the same time, the Bank of England will cut interest rates by around 100 to 125 basis points in 2024, and the benchmark interest rate may drop from the current 5.25% by the end of this year. 4%.
As these two economic difficulties are resolved, the stagflation of the British economy will be alleviated. Ernst & Young raised its forecast for UK economic growth in 2024 to 0.9% from the previous 0.7%, and to 1.8% in 2025 from the previous 1.7%. However, the head of the EY Statistics Club also said that challenges still exist. If inflation resumes rising, growth expectations for the British economy will be affected again.
Alex Veitch, policy director at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “The latest statistics show that UK GDP grew by 0.3% in November last year, but in the three months to November, UK GDP fell month-on-month, which shows that the UK Economic growth remains fragile. The UK economy is likely to be stuck on a slow growth path for the foreseeable future. Our latest quarterly economic forecasts show UK growth will be below 1.0% over the next two years.”
To sum up, the easing of energy prices and inflation in the UK has brought positive signals to households. However, against the background of fragile economic growth, there are still many uncertainties about future economic trends. When faced with the challenges of international energy markets and geopolitical risks, the British government and relevant departments need to continue to pay attention to energy price fluctuations and take measures to ensure that households and businesses can cope with potential risks. At the same time, the UK should actively seek to adjust and optimize its economic structure to meet the challenges of future economic growth.
Susie
Sichuan Green Science & Technology Ltd., Co.
0086 19302815938
Post time: Feb-01-2024
