The post-epidemic era has ushered in a new wave of peak demand for transportation fuels. From a global perspective, heavy-emission fields such as aviation and shipping are considering biofuels as one of the key decarbonization fuels in the transportation industry. What is the current situation of biofuel technology innovation? What is the application potential in areas that are difficult to decarbonize? What is the policy orientation of developed countries?
The annual growth rate of output needs to be accelerated
Up to now, bioethanol and biodiesel are still the most widely used biofuels. Bioethanol still occupies the dominant position in global biofuels. It can not only serve as a renewable and sustainable liquid fuel to reduce oil consumption, but also can be used as a Various raw materials and solvents in the chemical industry.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out in the “Renewable Energy 2023″ report that if the net-zero emissions target by 2050 is to be achieved, global biofuel production needs to increase by an average annual rate of 11% from now to 2030. It is expected that by the end of 2030, kitchen waste oil, food waste and crop straw will account for the highest proportion of biofuel raw materials, reaching 40%.
The IEA said that the current growth rate of biofuel production cannot help achieve the net zero goal in 2050. From 2018 to 2022, the annual growth rate of global biofuel production is only 4%. By 2050, the proportion of biofuel consumption in the aviation, maritime and highway sectors will need to reach 33%, 19% and 3%.
The IEA expects global biofuel demand to grow by 35 billion liters per year between 2022 and 2027. Among them, the consumption growth of renewable diesel and bio-jet fuel is almost entirely from developed economies; the growth in bioethanol and biodiesel consumption is almost entirely from emerging economies.
Between 2022 and 2027, biofuels’ share in the global transportation fuel sector will increase from 4.3% to 5.4%. By 2027, global bio-jet fuel demand is expected to expand to 3.9 billion liters per year, 37 times that of 2021, accounting for nearly 1% of total aviation fuel consumption.
The most practical fuel for decarbonizing transportation
It is very difficult to decarbonize the transportation industry. The IEA believes that in the short to medium term, biofuels are the most practical option for transportation decarbonization. Global production of sustainable biofuels will need to triple between now and 2030 to achieve the goal of net-zero emissions from transport by 2050.
There is broad industry consensus that biofuels offer a cost-competitive option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector over the coming decades. In fact, compatibility with existing fossil fuel infrastructure makes biofuels a practical option to replace fossil fuels in existing fleets.
Although electric vehicles are developing rapidly, the material gap required for large-scale battery manufacturing and the difficulty in laying out charging facilities in underdeveloped areas still pose challenges to their widespread adoption. In the medium to long term, as the transport sector becomes more electrified, the use of biofuels will shift towards sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as aviation and maritime.
“Liquid biofuels such as bioethanol and biodiesel can directly replace gasoline and diesel, providing mature and scalable alternatives in a market dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles,” said Heitor Cantarella, an expert at the Agricultural Research Institute of Campinas in Brazil.
my country is also accelerating the deployment of biofuels in the transportation field. In 2023, my country’s aviation kerosene consumption will be approximately 38.83 million tons, with direct carbon emissions exceeding 123 million tons, accounting for approximately 1% of the country’s total carbon emissions. In the context of “double carbon”, sustainable aviation fuel is currently the most feasible path to reduce carbon emissions in the aviation industry.
Mo Dingge, Chairman and Party Secretary of Sinopec Ningbo Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., recently put forward relevant suggestions for building a sustainable aviation fuel industry system that fits China’s reality: speed up the establishment of a large-scale and efficient supply system for bio-based raw materials such as waste oil and grease; my country’s independent and controllable sustainable certification system and improved industrial policy support system promote the healthy development of the sustainable aviation fuel industry.
The United States and Europe give policy preferences
Among developed economies, the United States is relatively active in promoting the development of biofuels. It is reported that the United States has allocated US$9.7 billion to the biofuel industry through the Inflation Reduction Act.
In February, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy jointly issued an announcement stating that funds awarded under the Inflation Reduction Act will be prioritized for allocation to companies with high-impact biofuel technology projects to improve the performance and reduce costs of biofuel production technology.
Joseph Goffman, an official in the EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation, said: “This move is designed to stimulate innovation in advanced biofuel production.” Jeff Marootian, principal deputy assistant secretary for energy efficiency and renewable energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, said: “Investments in biofuel technologies, to meet the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuel and other low-carbon biofuels.”
Some EU member states believe that biofuels should be included in the EU’s carbon-neutral fuel framework to ensure the industry’s ability to attract investment.
The European Court of Auditors says the EU lacks a long-term strategy for biofuels, which could undermine the region’s transport decarbonisation goals. In fact, the EU’s stance on biofuels has been wavering. It previously aimed to increase the proportion of biofuels in road transport energy use to 10% by 2020, but then abandoned this goal. At present, the EU realizes that biofuels have great potential in aviation, shipping and other fields, and is regaining confidence in development.
Nikolaos Milionis, an official of the European Court of Auditors, admitted that the EU’s biofuel policy framework is complex and has changed frequently in the past 20 years. “Biofuels can contribute to the EU’s carbon neutrality goal and enhance their own energy security, but there is still a lack of clear and definite development plans. The lack of policy guidance will undoubtedly increase investment risks and reduce the attractiveness of the European biofuels industry.”
Susie
Sichuan Green Science & Technology Ltd., Co.
0086 19302815938
Post time: Mar-30-2024
